Articles by Estefano Gomez
Spot crypto trading volumes fell to $1.27T in March, the lowest since September 2024. Bitcoin above $58,000 on April 14 remains at 100% YES.
US-Iran tensions have driven capital rotation toward oil я┐╜...
US President Trump claims Iran will halt backing for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. A US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 100%
YES.
Market reaction
The April 30 diplomatic meeting maя┐╜...
IranтАЩs Foreign Ministry says US statements donтАЩt reflect negotiation realities, casting doubt on a peace deal by April 22. The likelihood of a peace agreement now sits at 28.5%
YES.
Market reac...
A senior US official announced that President TrumpтАЩs ceasefire agreement includes a ban on Israeli offensive actions in Lebanon, while allowing self-defense against Hezbollah. Odds for Israel suspe...
The S&P 500 opening prediction for April 16 on Polymarket sits at 99.9%
YES, as the US stock market has rebounded to all-time highs amid strong earnings expectations.
Market reaction
A temporя┐╜...
The Wall Street Journal reports that Iran and the US are expected to meet again in Pakistan, with the Polymarket ceasefire-by-April-22 contract at 5.5%
YES.
The market for a US-Iran diplomatic meeя┐╜...
Oil tankers carrying US crude via the Panama Canal are at a four-year high, while the Polymarket contract on US escorts through Hormuz by April 30 sits at 18%
, down from 24% yesterday.
Market reacя┐╜...
IranтАЩs Deputy Foreign Minister dismissed the idea of a temporary ceasefire and proposed a new protocol for the Strait of Hormuz instead. The April 21 ceasefire market has dropped to 5.5%
YES, down...
The US Department of Energy has issued oil loans from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to nine companies, including BP, Energy Transfer Crude Marketing, and ExxonMobil. The market for crude oil я┐╜...
An Iranian state news outlet questioned Foreign Minister Abbas AraghchiтАЩs tweet about the Strait of Hormuz reopening. TrumpтАЩs blockade announcement by May 31 is at 91.5%
YES.
AraghchiтАЩs tweet...
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