Articles by Estefano Gomez
JapanтАЩs PM Takaichi confirmed oil supply security through 2027 despite Middle East disruptions. The market for a Bank of Japan rate decrease in April sits at 0.1% YES, unchanged from last week.
Tak...
The $24 billion Iraq trade corridor proposal has emerged alongside continued Strait of Hormuz disruption, with the Hormuz traffic normalization by April 30 market sitting at 0% YES and six days remaiя┐╜...
Bitcoin has hit $79,000, and the Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 by April 30 now reflects strong bullish sentiment, with traders pricing in a much lower probability of that declineя┐╜...
A lone-actor assassination attempt targeting President Trump and his administration at the White House CorrespondentsтАЩ Dinner has pushed traders to reassess Cabinet stability. The market for тАЬnext...
Iran has proposed a new plan to prioritize reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending its naval blockade. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 is at 16%
YES, up from 15.5% earlier.я┐╜...
Keir Starmer has publicly committed to leading Labour into the next general election, and the market on whether he leaves office by June 30, 2026, now sits at 42.5%
YES, up from 41% twenty-four houя┐╜...
The odds for an Iranian regime fall by June 30 sit at 8.5%
, slightly up from 8% yesterday, as Washington and Tehran try to hold together a fragile ceasefire backed by Chinese diplomatic involvementя┐╜...
Bitcoin shot up over $1,000 within a minute on Binance amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. The April Bitcoin price market reflects this volatility, though long-term prediction markets remain unaffected. Theя┐╜...
The cancellation of US envoy trips to Iran has driven the April 30 peace deal market down to 2%
YES, falling from 10% yesterday.
The diplomatic meeting market has also shifted. Odds of no US-Iran я┐╜...
IranтАЩs Speaker Bagher Qalibaf claims the US has run out of oil-related options. The odds of a US-Iran peace deal by April 30 sit at 2%
YES, down from 10% yesterday.
QalibafтАЩs comments frame Ira...
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