Articles by Estefano Gomez
Yara International reported stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings as the Iran war keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to commercial traffic. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market pя┐╜...
A massive ETHFI token unlock threatening 95.7% dilution has surfaced, drawing attention to Ethereum price markets. The market for Ethereum to hit $10,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 4.2%
YES, uncя┐╜...
Morgan Stanley has unveiled a Stablecoin Reserves Portfolio, a government money market fund targeting stablecoin issuers, timed to meet anticipated GENIUS Act reserve requirements. USDC depeg by Deceя┐╜...
Iran plans to include the US-Israel war in school textbooks, and the odds for an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 have dropped to 2%
YES, down from 5% yesterday, on the Israel-Iran peacя┐╜...
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon continue even after a US-brokered ceasefire extension. The Polymarket odds for Trump endorsing an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 sit at 100%
YES, a price that я┐╜...
The firing of Navy Secretary John Phelan, announced through a Pentagon social media post, has drawn attention to the market for the next Trump Cabinet departure. The likelihood of a Cabinet exit befoя┐╜...
Israeli Channel 12 reports that the defense minister is shifting strategy toward economic disruption of Iran. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market is at 8.5%
YES, up from 8% yesterday and 6% aя┐╜...
SpaceXтАЩs focus on AI in its IPO filing has pushed the odds of a timely public offering higher. The market for SpaceX going public by June 30, 2026, sits at 74%
YES, up from 71% yesterday.
Market ...
Trump retweeted a column suggesting he doesnтАЩt need a deal with Iran. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market sits at 6%
YES, down from 20% yesterday.
Market reaction
The retweet sen...
The FOMC meeting on April 28-29 is expected to maintain the current interest rate range of 3.50-3.75%, with the market for a 50+ bps cut after the April meeting at 10%
YES. CME FedWatch shows a 90%я┐╜...
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