Articles by Estefano Gomez
SpaceXтАЩs focus on AI in its IPO filing has pushed the odds of a timely public offering higher. The market for SpaceX going public by June 30, 2026, sits at 74%
YES, up from 71% yesterday.
Market ...
Trump retweeted a column suggesting he doesnтАЩt need a deal with Iran. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market sits at 6%
YES, down from 20% yesterday.
Market reaction
The retweet sen...
The FOMC meeting on April 28-29 is expected to maintain the current interest rate range of 3.50-3.75%, with the market for a 50+ bps cut after the April meeting at 10%
YES. CME FedWatch shows a 90%я┐╜...
Treasury yields remain steady amid waning optimism for a US-Iran ceasefire extension. The likelihood of extending the ceasefire by April 21 is at 0% YES, and the market for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000я┐╜...
TrumpтАЩs endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 sits at 100%
YES with 7 days remaining, even as Israel continues military strikes in southern Lebanon.
Market reaction
The Israel x Hezbol...
Day 56 of the extended ceasefire in the 2026 Iran War has produced no progress on diplomatic fronts. The probability of Donald Trump attending a meeting with Iran by April 30 has dropped to 2%
YES,я┐╜...
The US-Iran ceasefire has expired and tensions are rising, but BitcoinтАЩs odds of dipping to $60,000 in April sit at just 1.4%
on Polymarket.
BitcoinтАЩs odds of hitting $60,000 in April are at 1....
ChinaтАЩs foreign ministry advised its citizens to leave Iran or relocate to safer areas, citing security risks. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sit at 8.5%
YES, up from 6% a week ...
Trump is weighing punitive actions against NATO allies who refused U.S. support in the Iran conflict. The probability of a U.S. withdrawal from NATO by April 30 sits at 0.5%
YES.
The potential penя┐╜...
TrumpтАЩs move to reclassify medical marijuana to Schedule III has shifted prediction markets. The likelihood of marijuana being rescheduled by December 31 is now at 42.8%
, down from 62% yesterday.
...
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