Articles by Estefano Gomez
Apple confirmed John Ternus as its next CEO, and the Next CEO of Apple market has effectively resolved at 100% YES for Ternus becoming CEO by December 31.
TernusтАЩs confirmation previously drove a 3...
Al-Iraqchi, IranтАЩs lead diplomat, is set to return to Islamabad, potentially reigniting indirect US-Iran ceasefire talks. The market for the UK striking Iran by April 30 sits at 0.9%
YES, down fro...
Israeli airstrikes struck southern Lebanon, raising questions about the 2026 ceasefire. The Trump endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire market sits at 100┬в
YES, with no recent trades.
Market reactio...
An Israeli raid on Safad Al-Batikh in southern Lebanon, reported by @FirstSquawk, raises questions about the durability of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. The market for a ceasefire by June 30 sits aя┐╜...
USS Rafael Peralta confronted an Iranian-flagged vessel as part of the U.S. naval blockade, and the market for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30 sits at 15%
YES, with traders я┐╜...
Iranian fighter jets allegedly struck U.S. bases in Kuwait, causing extensive damage. The Iran military action by April 30 market now sits at 100%
YES.
Market reaction
Every sub-market within theя┐╜...
Trump canceled the Whitakoff and Kushner visit to Pakistan, originally planned for ceasefire discussions with Iranian representatives. The odds of a US-Iran peace deal by April 30 dropped to 4.5%
Yя┐╜...
The US dollarтАЩs share of international payments via SWIFT rose 1.9 points to 51.1% in March, coinciding with escalating US-Iran tensions. The Bank of JapanтАЩs April decision market prices a rate cu...
Oil investors are exiting positions at the fastest pace in 17 years, with April seeing $900 million in outflows. The WTI Crude Oil $160 in April market reflects bearish sentiment ahead of its April 3я┐╜...
Iranian officials have been evacuated from Pakistan under military escort, according to two Pakistani government sources. The тАЬIran coup attempt by June 30тАЭ market currently sits at 12.5%
YES.
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