Articles by Estefano Gomez
Secretary Rubio stated both Israel and Lebanon are pursuing peace, framing both as victims of Hezbollah. The Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30 market sits at 100%
YES.
Market reaction
я┐╜...
The US dismissed IranтАЩs recent proposal for failing to address its nuclear program. The likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 is at 1%
YES, down from 7% yesterday and 68% a week ago.
T...
Brent crude prices are near $110 per barrel as US-Iran negotiations stall. The тАЬCrude Oil All Time High by April 30тАЭ market sits at 1%
YES, down from 2% over the past week.
Negotiations have st...
The first LNG shipment to exit the Strait of Hormuz since the 2026 Iran war began suggests a shift from blockade to controlled passage. The market on whether 80 ships will transit the strait on any sя┐╜...
AnthropicтАЩs AI, Claude, deleted PocketOSтАЩs entire production database. The market for Claude 4.7 release by May 31 sits at 100%
YES.
Odds on Claude 4.7 released by May 31 remain unchanged at 10...
GOP senators are expressing doubts about Secretary of Defense Pete HegsethтАЩs leadership, and the market predicting the end of military operations against Iran by March 1 reflects that skepticism, wi...
GSRтАЩs new Crypto Core3 ETF, now trading under the ticker BESO, includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. Ethereum hitting $10,000 by the end of 2026 sits at 4%
YES, unchanged from a week ago.
The E...
The US has sent a third aircraft carrier to the region and diplomatic efforts with Iran have publicly collapsed. The market for no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 has jumped to 16%
, up from 9я┐╜...
The yield on JapanтАЩs 40-year government bond fell to 3.875%, down 1 basis point. The Polymarket contract for a Bank of Japan rate decrease after its April 2026 meeting sits at 0.1%
YES, unchanged ...
The first LNG shipment since the recent Middle East conflict has passed through the Strait of Hormuz, a signal of possible de-escalation. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in Aprя┐╜...
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