Articles by Estefano Gomez
China is expanding its economic pressure toolkit while maintaining a trade truce with the Trump administration, and the market for whether Trump will visit China by May 31 has slipped to 73.5%
YES,я┐╜...
Senator Thom Tillis has announced his support for Kevin WarshтАЩs confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair, following the DOJтАЩs closure of its investigation into Jerome Powell. The odds for WarshтАЩs c...
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the Iran war has surpassed its initial expected timeline, with President TrumpтАЩs discretion cited as the determining factor for its conclusio...
Iran has moved 4 million barrels of crude oil past the US blockade, and the Polymarket contract on crude oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1%
YES, down from 2% a day ago.
Market reaя┐╜...
Israeli attacks have killed over 2,500 people in Lebanon since March 2026, with the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market at 100%
YES.
Market reaction
Both the ceasefire by April 30 and я┐╜...
The cancellation of U.S. envoysтАЩ visit to Islamabad has cast doubt on peace talks, with the odds of a U.S.-Iran peace deal by April 30 dropping to 2%
YES from 10% just a day ago.
Market reaction
...
EgyptAir will resume flights to Riyadh, Doha, and Beirut, a sign of easing Gulf tensions, while the Polymarket contract on an Iranian strike on Israel by April 30, 2026, sits at 100%
YES.
Market rя┐╜...
Inflation is flaring, hiring is slowing, and the Fed is split. The potential impact of Kevin Warsh taking over as Fed Chair has traders on edge. The market for a 4.25% federal funds rate by the end oя┐╜...
Tanker tracker data shows that 4 million barrels have slipped past the US blockade at the Strait of Hormuz. The odds for traffic normalization by April 30 sit at ?
YES, with 6 days left until resolя┐╜...
Mark Gurman reports that Tim Cook is passing a product lineup including a foldable iPhone to John Ternus, and the Polymarket contract for Ternus as the next Apple CEO sits at 73%
YES.
Market reactя┐╜...
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