Articles by Estefano Gomez
Iranian lawmaker Mahmoud Nabavian has dismissed demands for a role in managing the Strait of Hormuz and a 20-year halt to uranium enrichment. The Iran uranium enrichment agreement market has dropped я┐╜...
A potential liquidation of $2.25 billion in crypto short positions looms if Bitcoin reaches $80,000, and the Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April market has seen odds decrease as this upward pressure builя┐╜...
IsraelтАЩs haredi draft crisis is escalating and threatening Prime Minister NetanyahuтАЩs coalition. The Polymarket contract on Netanyahu stepping down by June 30 trades at 5.5%
YES, a slight decrea...
Bitcoin futures saw over $600M in long liquidations, a level not reached since the February 6 тАЬBlack Sunday IIтАЭ market turmoil. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 by April 30 s...
Israel struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, putting pressure on a fragile ceasefire. The ceasefire with Hezbollah by April 30 market sits at 100%
YES.
The ceasefire technically holds, butя┐╜...
The Iran conflict is moving energy-related prediction markets, with crude oil all-time high by April 30 sitting at 1.6%
YES, down from 2% a day ago.
Market reaction
The April 30 crude oil market я┐╜...
The Kelp DAO exploit drained $292 million, leaving Aave with $196 million in bad debt. Ethereum reaching $10,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 4%
YES, unchanged this week.
Market reaction
The expя┐╜...
Baker Hughes has warned that the Strait of Hormuz could remain closed through 2026, and the Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at 0.5%
YES, unchanged from a day ago.
я┐╜...
The IDF struck Al-Khaiam in southern Lebanon while fighting with Hezbollah continues. The market for an Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026, is at 100%
YES.
The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefя┐╜...
Bitcoin has reclaimed the -0.5 MVRV pricing band at $73,700, with this level now acting as support and a mean reversion target around $96,000. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin reaching $200,000 byя┐╜...
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