Articles by Estefano Gomez
National Australia Bank has raised its credit provisioning, pointing to market volatility from the Middle East conflict. This has led to a slight increase in the odds of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 inя┐╜...
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi criticized US threats against Iranian ports, claiming they show a lack of commitment to diplomacy. The statement has pushed down odds on the US blockade of theя┐╜...
Iran rejected a second round of US peace talks while Revolutionary Guard gunboats fired on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic meetings with Iran by April 30 are now at 21.0%
YES, down froя┐╜...
The assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists has heightened fears of uranium and nuclear expertise reaching the black market, with proliferation risks tied to regime instability. The likelihood ofя┐╜...
A viral IRGC Navy transmission on Channel 16 declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, pending orders from Supreme Leader Khamenei. The likelihood of the UK sending warships through the Strait by April 3я┐╜...
IranтАЩs Mehr news reports US forces fired on an Iranian merchant ship, prompting IRGC naval intervention. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by May 31 sits at 0%
YES.
The incident reinforces t...
US Marines have taken custody of an Iranian-flagged vessel attempting to breach the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a social media post by President Donald Trump. тАЬStrait of Hormuz...
Crypto thefts in 2025 reached $3.4 billion, driven by state actors and mega-hacks. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April sits at 0% YES, while Bitcoin above $62,000 on Aprilя┐╜...
U.S. military planes are landing in the region as Iran warns of ongoing conflict. The probability of U.S. ground forces entering Iran by year-end is expected to increase by 15%, while the likelihood я┐╜...
Israel is preparing for potential escalation with Iran as US military posture shifts. The likelihood of the US-Iran ceasefire ending by April 21 is at 20%
YES, up from 6% just a day ago.
Market reя┐╜...
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