Articles by Estefano Gomez
John BoltonтАЩs public skepticism about US-Iran peace talks has pushed the odds of a permanent peace deal by April 30 down to 5.5%
YES, a drop from 10% just 24 hours ago.
The diplomatic meetings wi...
The Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin WarshтАЩs nomination to lead the Federal Reserve after U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro closed a criminal investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. War...
The EU announced its 20th sanctions package against Russia, targeting energy and financial sectors. The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026 market now trades at 5.2%
YES, up from 4% yesterday.я┐╜...
IranтАЩs delegation has left Islamabad after all-day talks, presenting a list of demands to Pakistani mediators. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire extension sit at 45%
YES, up from 30% a week ago.
T...
U.S. oil exports are increasing during the ongoing U.S.-Israel war with Iran, shifting global supply patterns. The market for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at 0% YES, reflecting expected pя┐╜...
Sirens sounded in IsraelтАЩs Western Galilee after a drone infiltration was detected, the latest in ongoing hostilities with Hezbollah. The market for an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 sits at ...
EthereumтАЩs SuperTrend indicator has signaled buy for the first time since May last year, while Ethereum price predictions for April 20-26 sit at 0% YES.
The SuperTrend flip suggests the end of a lo...
IranтАЩs Foreign Minister AraghchiтАЩs talks with Pakistani officials ended without progress. The probability of a US-Iran meeting by April 26 dropped to 10%
YES.
Market reaction
Odds for a diplom...
OpenAIтАЩs GPT-5.5 Pro is now available on Venice, pushing тАЬGPT-5.5 released by April 30тАЭ to 100%
YES.
The April 23 market also hit 100%
YES, up from 93% just a day ago. Odds had climbed stea...
Iran refused to meet US negotiators Witkoff and Kushner in Pakistan. The odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 sit at 9.5%
YES, down from 61% a week ago.
The permanent peace deal by Aя┐╜...
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