Articles by Estefano Gomez
RussiaтАЩs Central Bank reduced its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 14.5% in its April decision. The Polymarket question on whether the Bank of Russia would decrease the rate resolved at 100% ...
IsraelтАЩs operations in southern Lebanon have raised tensions and complicated diplomatic efforts. The market on Netanyahu leaving office by June 30 sits at 6%
YES.
Market reaction
The destruction...
Kevin Warsh, nominated as Federal Reserve Chair, is calling for improved inflation metrics. The market for no change in the federal funds rate after the July 2026 FOMC meeting trades at 83.5%
YES, я┐╜...
President Trump has escalated his feud with Candace Owens by calling her an тАЬextremely low IQ individual.тАЭ The market for Trump publicly insulting Tucker Carlson by April 30 sits at 100%
YES.
T...
President Trump is reaffirming a confrontational approach to IranтАЩs nuclear capabilities, and the probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026 has dropped sharply. The market sits...
NvidiaтАЩs stock hit $210, reclaiming the $5 trillion market cap. The market on whether it will be the largest company by market cap on April 30 is at 99.6%
YES.
Market reaction
The move comes as ...
The Trump administration has reclassified FDA-approved marijuana products to Schedule III, recognizing their medical use and lower abuse potential. The market for marijuana being rescheduled by Decemя┐╜...
Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely, shifting focus to economic pressure. The likelihood of the ceasefire ending soon now sits at ?
YES.
Market reaction
The removal of a fixed deadlя┐╜...
Stalled US-Iran negotiations are driving movement across several Polymarket contracts. Crude oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 sits at 2%
YES, down from 3% a week ago.
The breakdown in talkя┐╜...
The US is considering new strikes if Iran continues its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The market on Trump announcing the blockade is lifted by May 31 sits at 59.5%
YES, down from 77% yesterday.я┐╜...
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