Articles by Estefano Gomez
S&P GlobalтАЩs Daniel Yergin calls a Strait of Hormuz crisis the largest energy disruption ever. Crude Oil all time high by April 30 sits at 1.1%
YES, down from 2% a day ago.
YerginтАЩs warning...
Thousands in Israel are choosing jail over military service, but prediction markets show little expectation this will topple the government. Netanyahu out by June 30 sits at 6%
YES.
Market reactioя┐╜...
NBC reports U.S. bases in the Middle East sustained far more damage than publicly acknowledged. Military action against Iran by April 30 sits at 0.9%
YES, down from 2% a day ago.
Market reaction
я┐╜...
Sanctioned ships are reportedly passing through the Strait of Hormuz despite a US blockade. The market on Trump announcing the blockadeтАЩs lifting by May 31 sits at 63%
YES, down from 72% yesterday...
AMDтАЩs market cap crossed $500 billion in after-hours trading, and the Polymarket contract on NVIDIA being the largest company by market cap on June 30 sits at 92.5%
YES, unchanged from yesterday.
...
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with PakistanтАЩs Army Chief Asim Munir in Islamabad to discuss regional peace efforts. The Who Will Meet with Iran by April 30 market sits at 1.9%
YES, d...
Israel bombed Lebanon despite a ceasefire, citing Hezbollah rocket attacks. The odds of an Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026, are at 100%
YES, unchanged despite the news.
The strike unя┐╜...
An analyst claims Bitcoin dropping to $40,000 would be a тАЬnear-unprecedentedтАЭ event. On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 by April 30 sits at 15% YES, with traders pricing ...
Apple confirmed John Ternus as its next CEO, and the Next CEO of Apple market has effectively resolved at 100% YES for Ternus becoming CEO by December 31.
TernusтАЩs confirmation previously drove a 3...
Al-Iraqchi, IranтАЩs lead diplomat, is set to return to Islamabad, potentially reigniting indirect US-Iran ceasefire talks. The market for the UK striking Iran by April 30 sits at 0.9%
YES, down fro...
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