Articles by Estefano Gomez
The Trump administration has reclassified FDA-approved marijuana products to Schedule III, recognizing their medical use and lower abuse potential. The market for marijuana being rescheduled by Decemя┐╜...
Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely, shifting focus to economic pressure. The likelihood of the ceasefire ending soon now sits at ?
YES.
Market reaction
The removal of a fixed deadlя┐╜...
Stalled US-Iran negotiations are driving movement across several Polymarket contracts. Crude oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 sits at 2%
YES, down from 3% a week ago.
The breakdown in talkя┐╜...
The US is considering new strikes if Iran continues its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The market on Trump announcing the blockade is lifted by May 31 sits at 59.5%
YES, down from 77% yesterday.я┐╜...
The International Energy Agency projects the gas crisis from the Iran war may extend for two years, pushing odds on crude oil hitting $90 by end of June sharply higher, with a 25% expected move in odя┐╜...
TrumpтАЩs assertion that the Hormuz blockade is fully effective clashes with reports of Iranian ships breaching it. The odds of Trump announcing the blockadeтАЩs lift by May 31 have dropped to 59.5%
...
Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $2 billion in net inflows over an 8-day positive streak. The market for Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by June 30, 2026, is at 3% YES, unchanged over the past week.
я┐╜...
IranтАЩs crackdown intensifies with reports of increased executions and abuse in prisons. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market sits at 8.5%
YES, up from 6% a week ago.
The May 31 market remain...
Kuwait reports two drones launched from Iraq targeted its northern border posts, with no casualties. The market for Gulf state military action against Iran by April 30 is at 6%
YES, up from 5% yestя┐╜...
Healthcare workers in Tehran fear a medicine shortage as a naval blockade disrupts supply chains. The market for Iran targeting ships by April 30 sits at 30%
YES.
The blockade in the Strait of Horя┐╜...
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