Articles by Estefano Gomez
Macron offered full support to Trump after an armed attack on the US President. The US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26 market sits at 0.3%
YES, down from 9% yesterday.
MacronтАЩs endorsement co...
Iranian lawmaker Fadahossein Maleki has suggested preemptive strikes against the US are possible. The Polymarket contract on the Iranian regime falling by June 30 has moved to 8.5%
YES, up from 8% я┐╜...
The Iranian Parliament Vice President refused to restore normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz, and the odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 dropped to 2.6%
YES, down from 10% just 24 hourя┐╜...
IranтАЩs Intelligence Ministry arrested four individuals linked to a shooting at a pro-government event in Kerman. The market for crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 trades at 1.4%
YES.
...
The US cancelled envoy travel to Pakistan, marking a pivot from diplomacy to pressure on Iran. The odds of a diplomatic meeting by April 30 now sit at 0.9%
YES, down from 22% a week ago.
Market reя┐╜...
An armed attack at the White House CorrespondentsтАЩ Dinner has raised security concerns among Trump Administration officials. The odds of a Trump Cabinet resignation before 2027 are now at ?
YES.
...
The UK is working closely with the US on security measures as King Charles prepares for his US visit. Crude oil remains over $105 a barrel amid Strait of Hormuz tensions. The crude oil all time high я┐╜...
Israel dropped leaflets over Sour in southern Lebanon threatening residents, a move that strains the existing ceasefire. The market for a Trump endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by Aprilя┐╜...
Israeli President Isaac Herzog is delaying a decision on Prime Minister Benjamin NetanyahuтАЩs pardon request and is instead pushing for a plea deal. The market for Netanyahu being out of power by Jun...
Netanyahu has ordered strikes on Hezbollah in response to ceasefire violations. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026 market holds at 100%
YES, though active military operations complicя┐╜...
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