India Turns Against Longtime Ally Iran: Silence on Khamenei Assassination Signals Strategic Pivot

New Delhi, March 2, 2026 — In a stark departure from decades of close cooperation, the Indian government has refused to condemn the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in joint US-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026. This silence, coupled with India's scaling back of commitments to the Chabahar Port project, marks what analysts describe as a deliberate abandonment of Iran—potentially reshaping regional dynamics in Afghanistan to Pakistan's advantage.

For years, India invested heavily in Chabahar, developing the Shahid Beheshti terminal to create a vital trade corridor to Afghanistan and Central Asia, deliberately bypassing Pakistan. Iran provided logistical and strategic support, aligning with India's efforts to counter Islamabad's influence in the region. The port symbolized a shared vision against Pakistani dominance, enabling India to deliver humanitarian aid and pursue economic ties without relying on overland routes through hostile territory.

However, recent developments reveal a clear shift. India's 2026-27 budget allocated zero fresh funding for Chabahar—a first in over a decade—despite a 10-year operational agreement signed in 2024 and prior commitments of $120 million already fulfilled. US sanctions pressures, including the expiry of waivers and new tariffs on entities trading with Iran, have accelerated this retreat. Experts note that while India insists it remains committed, operational scaling and funding freezes indicate a pragmatic abandonment amid mounting Western alignment.

The government's response to Khamenei's killing has been equally telling. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration has issued only general calls for "restraint, dialogue, and de-escalation," while explicitly condemning Iranian retaliatory strikes on US allies like the UAE. No direct criticism of the US-Israeli operation has emerged, drawing fierce backlash from opposition parties. The Congress party labeled the assassination a "targeted" and "immoral, unlawful act," accusing the Modi government of moral cowardice and prioritizing Western ties over historical partnerships. AIMIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi called it an "immoral and unlawful act," urging condemnation. Iran's embassy in New Delhi pleaded for global voices not to "remain silent."

This calculated neutrality underscores India's broader recalibration. After prolonged collaboration with Iran—including military and logistical alignments—New Delhi now appears willing to let these ties erode. The Chabahar corridor, once a bulwark against Pakistan's grip on Afghan access, faces uncertainty amid Iran's leadership vacuum and escalating conflict.

Analysts warn this pivot could indirectly empower Pakistan in Afghanistan. By weakening alternative routes championed by India, dynamics may tilt toward Islamabad's favored corridors, mirroring how sustained Iran-India cooperation has yielded to new geopolitical realities. As one observer put it, "India's long game with Iran to counter Pakistan may now benefit the very rival it sought to outmaneuver."

With regional stability hanging by a thread, India's stance highlights the limits of strategic autonomy in an era of intensifying great-power alignments.