The financial sector expects oil prices to remain between $90 and $100 per barrel during the remaining days of September and in October.

However, the situation has once again changed after US President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that he had rejected Iran’s proposal for the Gulf war. Iran is now anticipating possible attacks from the US, raising concerns that oil prices could surge.

Analysts expect oil prices to remain around $100 per barrel if the war resumes. However, much will depend on the availability of oil supplies in the international market. Pakistan imports 70pc of its oil and gas requirements, making inflation highly sensitive to oil prices.

Stakeholders believe oil prices to hover around $100 per barrel

Pakistan’s official headline inflation rose sharply to 11.1pc year-on-year in August 2026, up from 9.2pc in July 2026.

According to a Topline Securities report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is expected to rise 10.25-10.75pc year-on-year, down from 11.1pc in August. This projection is slightly lower than the August figure, but does not represent a significant decline.

Petroleum prices have been rising daily in Pakistan and have now reached the highest level in the region. India increased petrol prices by 10pc, while Bangladesh reportedly jacked up by 16pc and Pakistan by over 50pc.

“It is not easy to assess the exact inflation figure for September as oil prices have been changing both internationally and locally. We can only expect slightly lower inflation, with a fear that it may remain close to last month’s level,” said S.S. Iqbal, a money market expert.

With inflation expected to remain at 10.25-10.75pc in September 2026, real interest rates are likely to stand at 75-125 basis points, lower than Pakistan’s historical average of 200-300 basis points, according to the Topline report.

Electricity, housing, food and construction costs have also witnessed increases, suggesting that inflation could come in above analysts’ expectations, particularly if the Gulf war continues for an extended period.

At the same time, Pakistan, Turkiye and Saudi Arabia are preparing to respond to a possible new conflict involving the Houthis and the kingdom, adding to uncertainty over oil prices and supplies. Any disruption could have a direct impact on Pakistan’s economy and inflation.

Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves, currently exceeding $21.4 billion, may provide some cushion against higher oil import costs. However, they cannot prevent inflationary pressures from rising if the conflict continues and international energy prices remain elevated.

Published in Dawn, September 27th, 2026

Vessels deemed to breach the blockade faced attack wherever they entered the Houthis’ operational reach. Attacks on Saudi tankers and energy infrastructure were followed by traffic through Bab al-Mandeb falling to its lowest level in months. By September, Houthi forces had seized strategic islands around Bab al-Mandeb and gained control of Yemen’s Red Sea coast, increasing their capacity to threaten, disrupt and potentially control maritime traffic through the strait.

The conventional legal position is that naval blockade is a belligerent right associated with international armed conflict (IAC), mainly because it permits interference with neutral commercial shipping. As per this view, a non-state armed group engaged solely in a non-international armed conflict does not ordinarily have the authority to impose a blockade that is binding on neutral vessels. However, customary international law does not conclusively foreclose blockade in a sufficiently intense NIAC, particularly where an organised armed group exercises extensive territorial and governmental control and can enforce maritime restrictions.

This question is particularly significant in Yemen, where there is a strong argument that the Houthis function as a de facto governmental authority rather than merely an insurgent movement. They have long controlled Sana’a, govern territory containing a substantial population, and have expanded along the Red Sea coast and around Bab al-Mandeb. Crucially, under the ICRC approach, effective governmental control, rather than global recognition alone, is central to determining de facto governmental authority. If the Houthis are treated as exercising Yemen’s governmental authority, their external hostilities may be characterised as those of Yemen itself, strengthening the argument that the relevant conflicts are international and that traditional belligerent rights, including blockade, are potentially available.

Even if this characterisation is rejected, other factors point towards possible internationalisation. Saudi Arabia is directly engaged alongside the internationally recognised Yemeni authorities against the Houthis, while the latter have repeatedly attacked Saudi territory. Saudi intervention by invitation does not, by itself, transform the underlying conflict into an IAC, but it adds an international dimension. Israel provides a separate route: it has used force on Yemeni territory in response to Houthi attacks, and under the ICRC’s view, the unconsented use of force by one state against another state’s territory may itself create an IAC between them, even where the immediate target is a non-state armed group. Israeli strikes on Houthi-held territory could therefore support a parallel Israel-Yemen IAC.

Do the Houthis, as a non-state armed group, have the legal authority to enforce a naval blockade?

Iranian involvement provides another possible route to internationalisation. Arms, financing and political support alone are insufficient. Under the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia’s “overall control” test in Tadić, however, the threshold may be met where a state, beyond financing, training or equipping an organised armed group, also participates in planning its military activities; specific instructions for each operation are unnecessary. The ICJ’s stricter “effective control” test, relevant to attribution of particular conduct, requires proof that the state directed or controlled the specific operation in question.

Accordingly, if the conflict is international, traditional blockade law is more readily applicable; if the Houthis remain solely a non-state party to an NIAC, their authority to impose blockade obligations on neutral shipping remains controversial. In either case, a declaration alone is insufficient: a blockade must satisfy the requirements of effectiveness, notification, impartiality and applicable humanitarian limitations.

Regardless of classification, the Houthis are bound by applicable international humanitarian law. In an NIAC, Common Article 3 of the Geneva Conventions and applicable customary IHL apply; in an IAC, the Geneva Conventions apply in full, together with customary IHL. In either case, rules governing distinction, military goals, proportionality and precautions constrain the conduct of hostilities.

The law of naval blockade is further governed by the law of armed conflict at sea and customary international law, as elaborated in the San Remo Manual. Under paragraphs 93-104, a blockade must be declared and notified to belligerents and neutral states; specify its commencement, duration, location and extent; allow neutral vessels an appropriate period to depart; be effective and impartially applied; and comply with humanitarian restrictions, including those concerning essential civilian supplies.

Importantly, the Houthis have denied seeking to close Bab al-Mandeb to international navigation. Their spokesman stated that there was “no closure” of the strait and described the measure as a maritime blockade affecting only the Saudi side. The main legal question, therefore, is not whether the Houthis may close Bab al-Mandeb as a coastal authority, but whether they may lawfully impose and enforce a belligerent blockade against Saudi Arabia and shipping falling within its scope.

Military necessity, however, does not independently make commercial shipping a lawful target. Article 52(2) of Additional Protocol I, reflecting the customary definition of a military objective, requires an object, by its nature, location, purpose or use, to make an effective contribution to military action and for its destruction, capture or neutralisation to offer a definite military advantage. Particular Saudi vessels, ports or assets directly supporting military operations may satisfy that test, but the general contribution of commercial trade to Saudi Arabia’s economy and war capacity does not, by itself, transform every merchant vessel into a military goal. Any attack remains subject to distinction, proportionality and precautions.

This distinction is particularly important for neutral shipping. Neutral vessels do not lose protection merely because they trade with Saudi Arabia or indirectly contribute to its economy. Whether a vessel may lawfully be intercepted, cap­­tured or attacked must be determined under the specific rules governing blockade, neutral shipping and military objectives, rather than through a general invocation of military necessity.

Finally, the simultaneous closure of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb would place roughly a quarter of global oil flows and a major share of LNG trade at risk. Some analysts view pressure on both chokepoints as part of a broader Iranian strategy, working through the Houthis to increase economic pressure on the US and its Gulf partners and create leverage over the wider war. Pakistan has condemned Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia while continuing to stress diplomacy and regional de-escalation. It has so far avoided direct military involvement under the Makkah accord, maintaining a cautious approach that limits the risk of Pakistan being drawn into the widening regional conflict.

The writer is a professor of law at Lums.

Published in Dawn, September 27th, 2026

Islamabad is not witnessing a siege-like situation for the first time; it has become part of life for the inhabitants of the twin cities. Even a cricket match or a visiting dignitary can bring life to a standstill. Despite huge investments in infrastructure and expensive surveillance systems, the security providers remain nervous. They have turned the federal capital into a city of checkpoints, where the average citizen must pass through long queues every 10 minutes during his daily commute — with police officers regarding him with suspicious eyes. Citizens end up feeling that they themselves are responsible for all the country’s ills, while those who have actually encroached on green belts, footpaths, and even highways escape punishment for crimes they do not even understand. The crisis runs deep, and even the postponement of the protest by the PTI, and earlier by the Jamaat-i-Islami, will not solve the country’s political, governance, economic, and security crisis.

These lines may seem cynical, but the streets of the federal capital tell Pakistan’s whole story. The ‘container-ment’ approach shows serious fractures among the power elites over the division of power, which has not been shared proportionately and has, in fact, caused a chronic political crisis and led to a rent-seeking economy. Rent-seeking means economic actors become adept at obtaining privileged access to the state or controlling scarce resources.

The masses are not responsible for the country’s state of affairs; it is fractured power elites who have yet to learn the art of distributing power among themselves. Here, another term needs explaining. The ‘fractured elite’ comprises Pakistan’s dominant political, civil-military, judicial, and institutional elite — sometimes referred to as the establishment — when it no longer agrees on the basic rules of the political game. The elite includes religious and ideological authorities, but in an evolving power order, their role and share have been minimised for now. Major businesses and landed interests have become important actors within the fractured power order.

Serious fractures exist among the elites over the division of power.

A question arises: what does an elite power accord look like? Is it about who will have the political power to govern, and under what conditions? Another question emerges: aside from political power, who holds the real power, also referred to as institutional power? Does this authority belong to parliament, the executive, the military, the judiciary, or the bureaucracy? Institutional power brings control over major economic resources and rents, as well as coercive or security institutions. It also has territorial power to determine how the interests of the centre and the provinces are accommodated. Among the elites, succession remains a key question: how will power change hands? A linked challenge arises. How are influential groups accommodated? Foreign policy remains the exclusive domain of the power elites — what strategic interests are considered non-negotiable?

Now look at the Pakistani elites, which have failed to define the role of political power. Gradually, an institution has assumed authority, while the ruling political parties have surrendered several rights to retain power. The opposition, meanwhile, is demanding its legitimate rights. Many political analysts arguably contend that the opposition, now led by the PTI, along with smaller parties within the opposition alliance, the Tehreek-i-Tahaffuz-i-Ayeen-i-Pakistan, is struggling for power rather than restoring or developing a new social contract in the country. Maulana Fazlur Rahman’s JUI-F is also part of the opposition. It has been marginalised in the power structure because the changing rules in the power playbook leave less space for religious actors now.

The political power structure has clearly failed to advance nationhood, and power remains confined to one major influential ethnic group in the country. Those who represent the power structure in the public discourse and the social and mainstream media malign less powerful and marginalised groups, suggesting they go to Afghanistan — their remarks target both the Pakhtuns and the Baloch. They stigmatise the Kashmiris as well, who have been demanding their rights in Azad Kashmir. If state propagandists are suggesting a course of action for them, where are they supposed to go?

Fractured power elites cannot create cohesion within a nation. They cannot resolve their internal discord, so how can they devise a broad formula for national cohesion? In their paranoid view, security has taken over dialogue, and they have grown accustomed to killing an ant with a hammer. Even when clear indications show dialogue is the best policy, power elites know it would mean accommodating new members in the power club and remain hesitant to admit newcomers.

A lack of flexibility or capacity for dialogue creates a need for a hyper-coercive internal security order. An internal security review is underway to make it more coercive. KP has resisted somewhat by introducing the Police Act, 2026, which will bring provincial government oversight over the system, as was required in the KP context, where discord between the police and other institutions has become challenging. But the federal government is resisting it. It seems the power elites will not compromise on the new internal security order and will continue to push their agenda through Nacta or the interior ministry. Foreign policy and geopolitics are sensitive domains for public discourse in the country. The parameters of non-negotiable interests continue to blur and narrow.

For the masses, the crisis in the country is no more than a long, tragic soap opera on screen, which they can watch, cry over, and laugh at, but cannot act on.

The writer is a security analyst.

Published in Dawn, September 27th, 2026

In his message on the occasion of World Tourism Day 2026, President Zardari welcomed international visitors to explore Pakistan’s diverse landscapes, highlighting a forward-looking vision that blends modern connectivity with traditional values of hospitality.

“We have to develop a tourism sector that embraces innovation while remaining rooted in our values of hospitality, respect and responsibility,” President Zardari said.

Says digital technology is reshaping how people plan and experience travel

This year’s theme, “Digital Agenda and Artificial Intelligence to Redesign Tourism”, draws attention to the changes that technology and artificial intelligence are bringing to the way people plan their journeys, discover destinations and experience different cultures.

“We must ensure that these changes remain responsible, inclusive and beneficial to people and communities,” Mr Zardari said.

“Pakistan has a remarkable diversity of landscapes and experiences, from the mountains of the north and the ancient civilisations of the Indus Valley to our Islamic and Gandhara heritage, cities, deserts and coastal areas. Our greatest strength, however, remains the warmth and hospitality of our people,” he said.

According to the president, tourism can create livelihoods, support local businesses and open opportunities for young people and women. It can also bring economic activity to communities across the country.

“At the same time, we must protect our natural environment, cultural heritage and traditions for future generations,” he said.

Published in Dawn, September 27th, 2026

For example, both the American and Iranian delegations held talks mediated by Qatar, while the Iranian president told Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif that Tehran was still committed to the Islamabad MoU. Moreover, other reports indicate that both the US and Iran are looking for an off-ramp, with Tehran offering to open the Strait of Hormuz for marine traffic if Washington ends its blockade of Iran. The key question is: who will blink first in this battle of wits, as neither side will want to appear weak? Now it is up to both sides — as well as the states mediating this conflict — to take forward the progress made in New York.

As the US, along with Israel, initiated this aggression, it should take the first step and offer confidence-building measures to Iran in order to de-escalate the situation and come to a long-term settlement. Though White House officials have said Iran is ‘desperate’ for a deal, the fact is that high fuel prices are also hurting the Trump administration at home. An unpopular war coupled with high inflation is not likely to have a positive effect on the Republicans’ chances going into November’s midterm elections. In a meeting on the UNGA sidelines, Mr Trump’s Gulf allies reportedly asked him for a post-midterm strategy regarding Iran. Perhaps something can come out of the interactions at the UN. However, the talks must not be a ruse to open Hormuz and to merely suspend hostilities and stabilise oil prices until the US midterms. There are some indications that the Trump administration may be considering kinetic action after the elections. It would mean a disastrous new confrontation in the Middle East. Hopefully, wiser counsel will prevail in Washington.

The way forward seems simple. The US must approach Iran with sincerity, and the talks must not be a smokescreen for further military action later. The blockade of Iran should be lifted and its funds released to enable a longer-term peace. Tehran, on its part, should commit to keeping Hormuz open in the interest of both its neighbours and the wider international community, while also refraining from targeting the Gulf states. Also, any new agreement should cover all fronts: Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen. Although these are separate conflicts, they are also interlinked as Iranian allies are involved in all of them fighting Israel, the US and Saudi Arabia. Hence, a peace treaty with Iran alone may not last unless there is also calm in other regional theatres, while there is a particular need to rein in Israel’s murderous attacks on regional states.

Published in Dawn, September 27th, 2026

Speaking at a ceremony held here on Saturday, he made it clear that the scooters were for women only and that action would be taken against any man seen using a pink scooter.

He said Sindh was the only province in the country that is providing free e-scooters to women.

“After providing training to women, e-scooters are being provided to those who pass the test,” he said, adding: “Our women are playing their full role in every field of life, and the Pakistan Peo­ples Party will continue such measures for the empowerment of women.”

He said that pink taxis for women will also be launched soon.

Mr Memon, who also holds the portfolios of information, transport and mass transit, said: “I do not know who the women coming here today are as the government is distributing pink scooters without discrimination and without distinction.”

“The number of driving licences for women was previously very low; however, it is now increasing rapidly. I want to make it clear that this process of providing pink scooters to women is not going to stop. We want 50,000 women who obtain driving licences to be provided with EV scooters,” he said.

He said empowering women was a reflection of the vision of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, who launched Lady Health Workers, First Women Bank and other important projects for the empowerment of women. “Earlier, women in Sindh were not as independent as they are today. After the martyrdom of Shaheed Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto, President Asif Ali Zardari launched the Benazir Income Support Programme for deserving women, under which identity cards were made for many women, and consequently the number of voters also increased,” he said.

“Today our women leaders, including Faryal Tal­pur, Dr Azra Fazal Pech­uho, Nafeesa Shah, Shazia Marri and others, are present in the assemblies on general seats. Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari and Presi­dent Zardari have issued special instructions for the empowerment of women,” he said.

He said that Hari Cards were being issued for farmers and Labour Cards for workers. “Sindh is at the forefront in the fields of health and education, including Thar coal.”

Provincial Minister for Culture Zulfiqar Ali Shah, Imdad Pitafi, Qasim Siraj Soomro, among others, were also present at the ceremony.

Published in Dawn, September 27th, 2026

The then SHOs of Shah Latif Town and Sachal police, Amanullah Marwat and Shaikh Muhammad Shoaib alias Shooter; assistant sub-inspector (ASI) Gada Hussain; head constables Sadaqat Ali and Mohsin Abbasi; and constables Raja Shamim and Rana Riaz Ahmed were facing trial for allegedly killing Naseemullah, better known as Naqeebullah Mehsud, Mohammad Sabir, Nazar Jan and Mohammad Ishaq in an alleged staged encounter in January 2018.

After examining the witnesses and hearing concluding arguments from both sides, the judge of ATC-VI exonerated the accused persons for lack of evidence.

Prosecutor Anila Malik argued that the prosecution examined over 40 witnesses, including star witnesses and they linked the accused persons with the commission of offences and documentary evidence also corroborated their testimonies.

Former SSP Rao Anwar was acquitted in the same case in 2023

She also contended that the prosecution established its case against all the accused persons beyond a shadow of reasonable doubt and pleaded for conviction.

However, defence lawyer Farzana Mateen submitted that all accused persons facing trial were framed with mala fide intention and that out of 40, not a single witness directly implicated any of the accused in the case.

She also maintained that there were glaring contradictions in the evidence of prosecution witnesses while two star witnesses about the abduction of Hazrat Ali and Muhammad Qasim did not associate the present accused persons in their statements recorded under Section 164 CrPC by a judicial magistrate and had also not identified these accused persons as the culprits during their evidence before the trial court.

The defence lawyer further argued that there was no allegation of abduction of the deceased against the accused persons and the prosecution has also failed to prove their participation in the alleged encounter.

She maintained that many accused persons, including a former senior superintendent of police, had already been exonerated by the trial court in the first round of litigation for want of evidence and she pleaded for acquittal of the present accused persons as well.

Initially, the then SSP Malir Rao Anwar, along with his around two dozen subordinates, had been booked for allegedly murdering Naqeebullah and others in an alleged staged encounter in a Malir locality and dubbing them as militants.

According to the prosecution, Naqeebullah was picked up with his two friends allegedly by eight to nine subordinates of Rao Anwar in civvies. Later, the other two detainees were set free while the whereabouts of Mehsud remained unknown and his mobile phone was also found powered off, as the former SSP allegedly kept him in wrongful detention.

It further stated that on Jan 17, the captive’s relatives came to know through the media that Rao Anwar and his associates allegedly killed Mehsud and three others in a staged encounter in a Shah Latif Town area on Jan 13 and dubbed them as Taliban militants.

The provincial police officer had constituted a three-member inquiry committee that found Rao Anwar and his associates involved in the case, it added.

However, in January 2023, the trial court acquitted the former SSP and 17 members of his team by extending the benefit of doubt. As the state had opted not to impugn the acquittal order, a brother of Naqeeb had filed an appeal before the Sindh High Court against their acquittal.

The present accused persons were absconders during the first trial, and after the exoneration of SSP and others, they had surrendered before the court to face the trial, and all of them were set free on bail in April this year.

Published in Dawn, September 27th, 2026

According to FIA and court records, Judge of the Special Court (Central), Rawalpindi, Abdul Rehman Muhammad Arif, pronounced the judgement on Sept 23 in a 2024 case registered under Sections 34/420 /468/471/109 of the Pakistan Penal Code (PPC), read with Sections 18/22 of the Emigration Ordinance (EO) 1979 and Section 5(2) of the Prevention of Corruption Act (PCA) 1947.

The case pertained to 92 nurses who were sent to Saudi Arabia on fake experience certificates and deported within a month. The FIA said progress in the high-profile case was regularly shared with the PM Office.

Accomplice awarded three years rigorous imprisonment

According to the warrant of conviction, key agent Ghulam Zulfiqar Ali alias Mian Zulfiqar, son of Din Muhammad, was sentenced to seven years’ rigorous imprisonment (RI) and a Rs100,000 fine, with two months’ further RI in default under Section 420 of PPC; seven years’ RI and a Rs100,000 fine, with two months’ further RI in default under Section 468; seven years’ RI and a Rs100,000 fine, with two months’ further RI in default under Section 471 of PPC; 10 years’ RI and a Rs200,000 fine, with three months’ further RI in default under Section 18 of the Emigration Ordinance 1979; and 10 years’ RI and a Rs200,000 fine, with three months’ further RI in default under Section 22 of the Emigration Ordinance 1979.

The total concurrent sentence comes to 41 years, as stated in the FIA infographic. The court further ordered, under Section 544-A of the Code of Criminal Procedure, that convict Zulfiqar Ali pay Rs9.2 million as compensation to the nurses, at Rs100,000 per victim. The amount shall be recovered as arrears of land revenue and, in case of default, the convict shall undergo a further six months’ simple imprisonment. The amount is to be deposited with the FIA Islamabad zone director for disbursement among all 92 victim nurses.

The second convict, Ghulam Fareed, son of Muhammad Sadiq, was sentenced to three years’ RI and a Rs200,000 fine under Section 18 of the Emigration Ordinance 1979. However, he was acquitted of charges under Section 22 of the EO, read with Sections 420, 468 and 471 of PPC, by giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Published in Dawn, September 27th, 2026